News: Premier League predictions: Lawro v Countdown star Rachel Riley

BBC Sport's football expert Mark Lawrenson is pitting his wits against a different guest each week this season.

Lawro's opponent for this weekend's Premier League fixtures is Countdown co-presenter Rachel Riley.
Riley is better known for her love of Maths of the Day rather than Match of the Day - she is the numbers expert on the long-running Channel Four show.

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Predictions from Countdown's Rachel Riley

But the Oxford University mathematics graduate actually knows her football as well as her figures and was brought up as a Manchester United fan - starting with a United babygrow and teddy bear when she was born - because her dad is from Salford.
Her favourite United players are Ryan Giggs and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, and she also enjoys playing too - she starred at the Soccer Six Fest in August.
Will Riley get her calculations correct with her scores for the weekend? You can see all of her predictions on Football Focus at 12:10 GMT on Saturday on BBC One and the BBC Sport website.

Premier League predictions
	Result	Lawro	Rachel
SATURDAY
Newcastle v Liverpool	x-x	1-1	1-3
Arsenal v Burnley	x-x	3-0	3-0
Chelsea v QPR	x-x	3-0	4-0
Everton v Swansea	x-x	2-0	1-1
Hull v Southampton	x-x	2-1	0-1
Leicester v West Brom	x-x	2-0	2-1
Stoke v West Ham	x-x	1-0	2-1
SUNDAY
Man City v Man Utd	x-x	2-0	3-2
Aston Villa v Tottenham	x-x	1-1	0-2
MONDAY
Crystal Palace v Sunderland	x-x	2-1	2-2

A correct result (picking a win, draw or defeat) is worth ONE point. Getting the exact score correct earns THREE points.
Last weekend, Lawro got one correct result from 10 Premier League games, predicting the perfect score in Swansea's 2-0 win over Leicester.
His total score of three points was beaten by The Only Way Is Essex star Mark Wright and his Strictly Come Dancing partner Karen Hauer, who got four correct results including one perfect score.
We are keeping a record of the totals for Lawro and his guests (below), and showing a table of how the Premier League would look if all of Lawro's predictions were correct (at the bottom of the page).

Total scores after week 9
Lawro	70
Guests	52

LAWRO'S PREDICTIONS

SATURDAY

All kick-offs 15:00 GMT unless otherwise stated.

Newcastle v Liverpool (12:45 GMT)

Newcastle are a team in form and, all of a sudden, Magpies boss Alan Pardew apparently knows what he is doing again.
It seems to happen every few months - a manager who is supposedly about to get sacked  wins three games in a row like Pardew has done and he is a genius.

Pardew's side have picked up three wins and a draw in their last four games in all competitions

Could it actually be the case that Pardew was not so bad in the first place?
Liverpool have had their own problems, which are not over despite the Reds getting out of jail with that late turnaround to beat Swansea in the Capital One Cup on Tuesday.

Lawro on video technology to help referees...
"Liverpool benefitted from a bad refereeing decision when Swansea's Federico Fernandez was sent off in their Capital One Cup tie. For major, game-changing incidents like that one I do not understand why the fourth official cannot watch a replay and, within a few seconds, talk to the referee on his headset about what has happened.
"Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger is a long-time advocate of using video technology to help referees and he makes a very good point when he asks why millions of people around the world, say, watching a Premier League game, can see there has been an obvious mistake by a referee and yet the people officiating the game turn a blind eye to it. People might say it will make games last longer but I don't think the punters are bothered, especially if it means better decisions."

Mario Balotelli scored the equaliser to start the fightback but I cannot believe the amount of column inches he has been given for doing so.
Balotelli came on and he did all right, but forget all this 'zero to hero' stuff. He is still struggling for form, and he still has a lot to prove.
Whether he scores on Saturday or has a stinker, then it will be all about him again. Everybody seems fascinated by what Balotelli does but that is not helping Liverpool.
Surely the focus should be on getting the whole team to play better?
Lawro's prediction: 1-1
Rachel's prediction: 1-3

Arsenal v Burnley

Burnley showed again against Everton last week that they are competitive and organised, but we also saw again that they are lacking the quality they need to survive in the Premier League.

Lawro on Burnley's long wait for a win...
"If Burnley are still stuck on four points after playing Arsenal on Saturday then they will have played 10 games and will be more than a quarter of a way through the season without winning once. Yes, there are easier games than going to Emirates Stadium but Burnley's problem is will they be easy enough?
"Their next few fixtures look more appealing - Hull (h), Stoke (a) and Aston Villa (h) - but unfortunately I do not look at any of those games and think that their wait for three points will soon be over."

There is actually a lot to like about the Clarets, who are full of energy and well-coached but, as the weeks go by, the gulf in class seems to get bigger.
They could just not get anywhere near Everton striker Samuel Eto'o and I fear for them that they could find it just as tough against Arsenal's attacking players.

Samuel Eto'o scores Everton's first goal in their 3-1 win over Burnley

The Gunners are not in red-hot form or anything like that - they have limped over the line to get results in recent weeks and were pretty much gifted their win by Sunderland last time out.
That is a positive thing because you could argue they got their reward for putting teams under pressure - and I do not see them having to work too hard for the three points on Saturday.
Lawro's prediction: 3-0
Rachel's prediction: 3-0

Chelsea v QPR

Unusually for Chelsea, they retreated in the last 10 minutes of their draw at Old Trafford on Sunday and let Manchester United back into the game.
Normally, a Jose Mourinho side would keep pressing the opposition and, if they had done that, I think they would have won.
I cannot imagine victory being in doubt for too long against QPR, though. Yes, it is a derby but there is a gulf between the two teams - of mentality, not just ability.
Lawro's prediction: 3-0
Rachel's prediction: 4-0

Everton v Swansea

Swansea had slipped a bit after winning their first three games but they beat Leicester quite convincingly last time out and are back in the top six.
Everton have also recovered from a bit of a wobble, in their case by beating Aston Villa and Burnley comfortably, and they should carry on climbing the table.
Their target now has to be to turn Goodison Park back into a difficult place for teams to get a result, after only taking two points from their first three home games.
Lawro's prediction: 2-0
Rachel's prediction: 1-1

Hull v Southampton

Southampton just keep on winning and Graziano Pelle just keeps on scoring.

Pelle has hit nine goals in 12 games for Southampton this season

Saints have been brilliant of late, but their run has to end somewhere, and I think it will be the KC Stadium.
I like the fact Hull do not roll over for anyone and, even when they are hit by injuries, they are always feisty.
I put that down to Tigers boss Steve Bruce. Behind Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho, he is the best man-manager in the Premier League.
Lawro's prediction: 2-1
Rachel's prediction: 0-1

Leicester v West Brom

Leicester are still in a sticky patch after that big win over Manchester United and, away from home, they have been goal shy.

Continue reading the main story

“The outcome of this game will depend on Leicester's approach. If it is a positive one, they will win”

They are more of a threat at home, though, and I still think they will be fine in terms of staying up.

What might be holding the Foxes back is the number of changes Nigel Pearson is making for each game. I'm not sure he has the depth in his squad to do that - he needs to get back to his best team and pick up a win to take a bit of pressure off.
West Brom seem to be so reliant on Saido Berahino's goals at the moment, but his purple patch will not last forever.
The Baggies showed character to fight back from 2-0 down to draw with Crystal Palace last time out but, for me, the outcome of this game will depend on Leicester's approach. If it is a positive one, they will win.
Lawro's prediction: 2-0
Rachel's prediction: 2-1

Stoke v West Ham

Stoke have been very inconsistent and also do not seem to create many chances, which is almost completely opposite to how West Ham are playing right now.
But this is a big game for the Potters, because they come into it on the back of two defeats in the Premier League and Capital One Cup, and they need to find a way of winning it.
To get the three points they need to stop the Hammers and, if they succeed, then I also suspect this game will be a pretty dour affair.
Lawro's prediction: 1-0
Rachel's prediction: 2-1

SUNDAY

Man City v Man Utd (13:30 GMT)

This is just the game Manchester City need after a strange week.

Manuel Pellegrini's Manchester City side have lost two and drawn one of their last three games

In their defeat by West Ham last weekend, it was almost as if they woke up with 30 minutes to go and realised they might get beaten.
I don't know if it is down to the manager but it has happened with City before - they almost seem to think they can win at any sort of stage of the game, but that is not the case in the Premier League.

Lawro on how City rise to the occasion...
"Generally with Manchester City, I do feel the bigger the game then the better some of their players are. It should not be that way, of course, and it might be time for the manager to steam into one or two of them and question their attitude in some matches.
"But their poor results are not down to lack of ability and that is a reason why, despite their poor form, I think they can get wins against Manchester United on Sunday and CSKA Moscow in the Champions League on Wednesday."

As for Manchester United, going forward against Chelsea they probably looked as dangerous as any team has done against them this season.

Continue reading the main story

“Eliaquim Mangala looks like he should be the complete defender but he makes some strange decisions”

Defensively, however, they are still very poor and the mistakes they are making are schoolboy errors.

It will make a big difference to City if David Silva is fit but, if they are anywhere near their best going forward, then United are in trouble.
City's defence has issues too, of course. Eliaquim Mangala looks like he should be the complete defender but he makes some strange decisions.
That could be him having just arrived from Porto, where he probably only had half a dozen tough league games a season, but he needs to adjust to the intensity of the Premier League where any team can beat you and embarrass you.
Martin Demichelis is probably the best of a bad bunch when it comes down to who should be Vincent Kompany's regular partner at centre-half.
There are no problems with Kompany and Pablo Zabaleta but at left-back Aleksandar Kolarov is much better going forward than he is defending and, if you look at their defence as a unit, I can understand why manager Manuel Pellegrini says he is worried.
Lawro's prediction: 2-0
Rachel's prediction: 3-2

Aston Villa v Tottenham (16:00 GMT) Predictions: Lawro v Rachel Riley

Continue reading the main story

“ I don't really feel I can pick either of these teams to win a game at the moment.”

Tottenham lost their way badly in the second half of their defeat by Newcastle last week.

Not only did they let a 1-0 half-time lead slip, they failed to create any further chances and the Magpies did not have to play particularly well to win.
I look at Spurs and think it is easy to upset them and stop them from playing.
But they are up against a Villa side who have lost five in a row and haven't scored in any of those games - and I don't really feel I can pick either of these teams to win a game at the moment.
Lawro's prediction: 1-1
Rachel's prediction: 0-2

MONDAY

Crystal Palace v Sunderland (20:00 GMT)

Both of these sides are in the bottom five but Crystal Palace are proving very difficult to beat under Neil Warnock.
Sunderland are the team with bigger problems right now.
They did not show much of a response against Arsenal after getting beaten 8-0 by Southampton, which surprised me, and should be a worry for their manager Gus Poyet.

Poyet has seen his side slide into the Premier League's bottom three

Aside from the mistakes that gifted the Gunners their goals, they were relatively uncompetitive.
In the mini-league they are in, in the bottom eight of the Premier League, that is the very least they have got to be. I expect Palace will show them that on Monday night.
Lawro's prediction: 2-1
Rachel's prediction: 2-2
Lawro was speaking to BBC Sport's Chris Bevan

Lawro v Guests
P9	W5	D2	L2

SCORE	GUEST LEADERBOARD
10	Liam Fray
7.78	Lawro (average after 9 weeks)
8	Roddy Doyle
7	Ossie Ardiles
6	Mark Wright & Karen Hauer
5	Joe Cole, Sarah Harding & Leon Fagbemi, Van McCann
4	Kell Brook
2	Neil Lennon

Lawro's best score: 17 points (week seven v Ossie Ardiles)
Lawro's worst score: 3 points (week nine v Mark Wright and Karen Hauer)

ARROWS DENOTE DIFFERENCE TO REAL TABLE
POS	TEAM	P	W	D	L	PTS	DIFF	+/-
1.	Chelsea	9	8	1	0	25		0
2.	Man City	9	6	3	0	21		+1
3.	Liverpool	9	6	3	0	21		+4
4.	Man Utd	9	6	2	1	20		+4
5.	Arsenal	9	5	3	1	18		0
6.	Stoke	9	4	4	1	16		+6
7.	Southampton	9	4	3	2	15		-5
8.	Everton	9	3	4	2	13		+1
9.	Tottenham	9	3	4	2	13		+2
10.	Newcastle	9	3	4	2	13		+4
11.	Sunderland	9	2	5	2	11		+7
12.	Swansea	9	3	1	5	10		-6
13.	Crystal Palace	9	3	0	6	9		+3
14.	West Brom	9	2	1	6	7		-1
15.	Aston Villa	9	2	1	6	7		0
16.	QPR	9	2	1	6	7		+3
17.	West Ham	9	1	3	5	6		-13
18.	Hull	9	2	0	7	6		-8
19.	Leicester	9	1	2	6	5		-2
20.	Burnley	9	0	4	5	4		0